Countries that are in the 'ring of fire', including those prone to earthquakes. However, can earthquakes be predicted when they will come?
Launching Scientific American, earthquakes are unpredictable things. Even the US Geological Survey (USGSP wrote warnings related to earthquake forecasts.
"Neither the USGS nor any other scientist ever predict a major earthquake. We don't know how and we don't expect any predictions in the future," they wrote.
Then why are earthquakes unpredictable, while other disasters such as floods, tornadoes and hurricanes can still be predicted even with different accuracy calculations? It's good to know about earthquakes in advance.
How do tectonic earthquakes occur?
Our understanding of what makes earthquakes happen is based on the theory of plate tectonics, or the idea that the Earth's outer crust is made up of moving rock plates. These plates can slide over the rocky but softer layer beneath, called the Earth's mantle, which is above the molten material of the Earth's core.
Our modern theory of plate tectonics dates back to the 1950s and it is estimated that there are nine major plates. Along the boundaries of each of these plates are numerous fault lines, through which most of the planet's earthquakes are known to occur.
Sometimes during relative shifts, tectonic plates collide with each other. As soon as the moving interiors collide, there is energy that is radiated in waves through the rocky surface of the Earth. These waves shake the ground as they move through it, and earthquakes occur.
The challenge of predicting an earthquake
Effective earthquake prediction includes four components: date, time, location and magnitude of the earthquake. However, it is difficult to see the signs that nature shows and draw conclusions about the relationship between these signs and the earthquake.
Sometimes earthquake events also occur without aftershocks. Earthquakes originate several km below the earth's surface so of course there are other possible indicators that could be a sign, but we can't easily detect them here on Earth's surface. What's more, we also don't know what to look for down there.
Another difficulty in earthquake prediction is to distinguish between a minor earthquake (which is also difficult to predict when it will come) and a major earthquake. There is no simple way to decipher whether an early warning sign is a sign of a major, destructive earthquake or just a minor one.