A new study finds that the number of cities capable of hosting the Winter Olympics could drop to just one by the end of the 21st century. This will happen if global emissions of greenhouse gases are not significantly reduced from now on.
Even now, we have seen this year's Winter Olympics held in Beijing, China, go down in history as the first Winter Olympics to use 100% artificial snow.
The study, published in Current Issues in Tourism, looks at climate data from the 1920s to the present day, as well as models of future climate change in this century, including what if emissions goals are met and missed.
"Climate change is changing the geography of the Winter Olympics and unfortunately, will eliminate some of the host cities that are renowned for their winter sports," said Robert Steiger of the University of Innsbruck in Austria, quoted by IFL Science.
"Most of the Winter Olympic host locations in Europe are projected to be marginal or unreliable by the early 2050s, even in a low-emissions future."
They also asked current winter sports athletes to rate their preferred conditions for the Olympic sports Alpine Skiing, Nordic Skiing, Freestyle Skiing, Ski Jumping/Nordic Combined, Alpine Snowboarding and Freestyle Snowboarding.
Athletes were asked to rank a range of climatic conditions (fog, fresh powder snow, chemically treated snow, surface ice, wind) on a scale from unacceptable to ideal for peak performance and safety, as well as ideal temperature for competing.
"We wanted to understand from an athlete's point of view what climatic and snow conditions make competition safe and fair," said Natalie Knowles, a former Canadian skier and current PhD student involved in the research.
"Then, we determine which Olympic hosts can provide those conditions in the future," he said.
The probability of unfair and unsafe conditions increases under all future climate change scenarios, according to the study. However, if we stick to the Paris Agreement, its effects can be significantly reduced.
"In a low-emissions future consistent with the successful Paris Agreement, only 13 of the previous 21 host locations (all in the Northern Hemisphere) will remain reliable for snow sports competitions in the 2050s, and 12 in 2080- an," the team wrote in the study.
"The impact of the high-emissions scenario is much clearer, reducing the number of climate-reliable locations to 10 in the 2050s and 8 in the 2080s. The prognosis for the Winter Paralympics, which occurs in March after the Olympics, is much worse. ," they wrote.
In one high-emissions scenario, only one city is still eligible to host the Winter Olympics: Sapporo, Japan.
"High emission pathways yield very different results for the ability to provide fair and safe conditions for snow sports at the Winter Olympics site," the researchers said.
"By mid-century, the number of reliable hosts had dropped to four: Lack Placid, Lillehammer, Oslo, and Sapporo. Then by the end of the century, only one location remained reliable, Sapporo," they wrote.
The main issues raised by athletes relate to the quality of snow, including the dangers of artificial snow. They also mention most of the safety concerns arise from higher temperatures affecting athletes and snow.
The team found that 89% of the winter athletes they surveyed already thought the climate crisis was having an impact on competitive conditions, while 94% were concerned it would impact the future of their sport.
"No sport can escape the effects of climate change," said Daniel Scott, Professor of Geography and Environmental Management at the University of Waterloo, Canada.
"Achieving the Paris Agreement targets is critical to saving snow sports as we know it and ensuring there is a place around the world to host the Winter Olympics."