A number of national media publications stated that a number of countries, especially in Europe, made government decisions to eliminate the Covid-19 pandemic. Apart from being categorized as endemic, various prokes and social restrictions were also lifted completely.
On the other hand, still from the national media coverage (both conventional and online), the officials who announced it to the people affected by the virus said that the Omicron variant was more benign (mild) than the Delta variant.
Justify these data? Can we underestimate Omicron, and at the same time imitate other countries that have turned pandemic status into endemic? How long will this ups and downs occur, and what are the effective solutions to prevent it?
Using a data scientist approach typical of Sharing Vision, the authors recap the data of long and complete duration, namely from the beginning of Indonesia's pandemic status (March 2020) to February 2020 with a database of data sources from data.humdata.org which refers to John Hopkins University, Maryland, United States. Here are some of the processed data.
First, throughout the pandemic, daily cases in Indonesia were 40,489 cases with a daily trend of 37,336 cases. From this figure, the graph curve spikes twice, namely June-July 2021 when the Delta variant is fierce and in late January-early February 2022 with Omicron. When compared to the two graph curves, the shape of the sharpest spike curve occurs at the top of the Omicron now.
This is simultaneously with the increase in periodic daily (1 week) cases which was also the sharpest spike in January-February 2022 by 285.68% as of January 30, 2022, and then slowed down again to 104.95% as of February 11, 2022 (see Figure 1.1 below). ).
When compared to other countries, especially Southeast Asia, and other countries in the world (see figure 1.2 below), the pattern of increase in daily cases in Indonesia as of February tends to be similar to the majority of countries in Asean and the world. The decline in the Omicron surge, for example, has already been seen in Australia and the Philippines.
Second, the daily death rate in Indonesia in March 2020-February 2022 reached 100 with the current trend of deaths being 72 events. Meanwhile, the increase in the periodic (1 week) daily death rate recorded the highest increase to 267.33% as of February 8, 2022 and then slowed slightly to 172.97% as of February 11, 2022. The accumulation of deaths until February 11, 2022 was 144,958 people with a higher daily death spike. again in mid-January 2022 (see Figures 1.3a and 1.3b below).
If the daily death graph in Figure 1.3 above is compared globally (see Figure 1.4 below), we see a pattern that we really need to watch out for because some developed countries with good health facilities, actually experience mortality rates from Omicron that are equal to or even higher than the level death from the Delta variant that has gripped the world last July. Examples are Australia, Japan, France, Germany, Spain, England, and the United States.
If the daily death graph in Figure 1.3 above is compared globally (see Figure 1.4 below), we see a pattern that we really need to watch out for because some developed countries with good health facilities, actually experience mortality rates from Omicron that are equal to or even higher than the level death from the Delta variant that has gripped the world last July. Examples are Australia, Japan, France, Germany, Spain, England, and the United States.
Because this Omicron variant spreads much faster than the Delta variant, we still need to be aware of the high risk of death due to too high daily cases. Based on these risk estimates, we need to be careful with the statement that we often echo that Omicron is milder than Delta.
Therefore, with the surge in Omicron already stepping on the gas at the beginning of the first quarter, and the Eid holiday at the beginning of the second quarter (late April and May 2022), we must together ensure that there is no exponential spike in June-July this year.
In short, we should not all underestimate the Omicron variant with reference to the high daily mortality that occurs in some countries. We need to be very careful when stating that this Omicron is more docile. On the other hand, we also don't need to be paranoid with him, so a mid-step with full anticipation can be taken so that we can build the right response in the face of this Omicron hit.
So, what is the most effective and efficient way to suppress all of this? As we have written consistently before, that these solutions all remain the same: 5M and 3T.
We all must continue to obey the prokes, especially obeying the 5M, while the government continues to try to track, suppress, and localize the movement of cases in the form of 3T activities. Yesterday, especially after the virus slashed from August 2021-January 2022, many of us are no longer disciplined with masks, diligently washing our hands, and full of mobility, traveling to crowds everywhere, even though we haven't all been vaccinated.
Now, we are reminded again, to continue to maintain progress in carrying out daily activities while increasingly surrendering to God Almighty, so that together we can restore everything to be greater. Borrowing the G20 slogan, let us all... Recover Stronger, Recover Together.