The rapid spread of variants, different vaccine strategies, and varying degrees of immunity around the world, makes the future of the pandemic difficult to predict. Now, appears Omicron. A sign that the COVID-19 pandemic is coming to an end?
Scientists say all countries face the same big problem: the speed at which variants spread. The WHO and other agencies predict that a large number of Omicron infections may signal the end of the pandemic, because of the short-term surge in immunity that will follow. However, the researchers caution that the situation remains unstable and difficult to model.
"It (the virus) is moving so fast that it gives very little time to prepare for any response. So decisions have to be made under great uncertainty," said Graham Medley, an infectious disease modeler at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who frequently gives advice and consideration to the British Government.
So is the Omicron a sign that the pandemic is over? Unfortunately no. As quoted from Nature, researchers agree that the emergence of Omicron will not end the COVID-19 pandemic.
"This is not the last variant. So the next variant will have its own characteristics," said Medley.
Given that the virus is unlikely to disappear completely, COVID-19 will inevitably become an endemic disease, scientists say. But it also depends on the behavior of the people.
"I think it's hope that the general behavior is somehow headed for a situation where we have so much immunity in the population that we're not going to see epidemics that are so deadly anymore," said Sebastian Funk, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
He added that the transition to endemicity, or "coexistence with viruses" without restrictions and protections, is difficult to model with any accuracy.
That's partly because even the best disease models struggle to make reasonable forecasts over the next few weeks. That's also because endemicity reflects a call for judgment about how many deaths society is willing to tolerate while the global population continues to build immunity.
For Mark Woolhouse, infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, UK, COVID-19 will truly become endemic only when most adults are protected from severe infections because they have been exposed to the virus several times as children, and so have developed immunity. experience.
"Obviously that will take decades, and that means many parents today (who weren't exposed as children) will remain susceptible and may need follow-up vaccinations," he said.
This strategy also has other drawbacks. Some of those exposed as children will develop COVID for a long time. It also depends on how the children continue to exhibit significantly lower rates of severe disease as the variant develops.
"There is no guarantee that the next variant will be lighter, but it seems the pattern is as seen so far. The virus is getting lighter with each iteration," he concluded.