When a series of devastating earthquakes hit Turkey and Syria one after another, an old tweet that 'predicted' this situation went viral. A man claimed to have predicted there would be a big earthquake in the area.
Twitter user Frank Hoogerbeets, whose profile describes himself as a researcher on the Geometry Survey of the Solar System, argued on Friday (3/2) that sooner or later a magnitude 7.5 earthquake would hit Turkey.
When three days later, namely Monday (6/2) a massive earthquake caused the devastation of Turkey and Syria, Twitterers flocked to respond to the tweet and put forward their own theories.
Sooner or later there will be a ~M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon). #deprem pic.twitter.com/6CcSnjJmCV
— Frank Hoogerbeets (@hogrbe) February 3, 2023
"My heart goes out to everyone affected by the great earthquake in Central Turkey. As I stated before, sooner or later this will happen in this region, similar to the years 115 and 526. These earthquakes are always preceded by a critical planetary geometry, such as what we experienced February 4-5," Hoogerbeets tweeted after the quake.
The large earthquakes in Central Turkey have caused a significant change in stress distribution throughout the region, with seismic activity down to Palestine as a result. Clearly, the region is resettling. pic.twitter.com/KZ9LzjAm6c
— Frank Hoogerbeets (@hogrbe) February 8, 2023
Some seem to believe Hoogerbeets' theory, while others insist that there is no way to truly predict the timing and pattern of earthquakes.
"Everyone reading this 'forecast', please don't be fooled. Earthquakes are not triggered by planetary alignments, and there is no scientific method to predict earthquakes. Please consult a real seismologist if you have any questions," replied another Twitter user whose bio identified him as as a professional in a related field.
"Earthquakes can be triggered by planetary configurations. Many forecasters predicted them and Frank Hoogerbeets too. If science won't admit it, then that's their problem," countered another.
Apart from this controversy, Frank's predictions were widely disproved by the scientific community. The argument is actually simple, how can earthquakes that occur on the Earth's surface be predicted by looking at the position of the Solar System?
In addition, the fact is that science has so far been unable to predict the arrival of an earthquake, including the arrival of its accompanying disasters such as a tsunami or landslide.
This was conveyed by the US Geology Survey (USGS) in a statement on the FAQ page on their official website. "Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. We don't know how, at any point in the future. The USGS scientists can only calculate the probability that a significant earthquake will occur, shown on our hazard mapping in a given area within a few years," wrote the organization.