Scientists say buildings in Turkey and Syria are vulnerable to earthquakes. This vulnerability is exacerbated by conditions of war.
As is known, an earthquake measuring 7.8 magnitude struck southeastern Turkey and parts of Syria in the early hours of February 6. This natural disaster claimed tens of thousands of lives and injured thousands more. The quake was followed by a magnitude 7.5 event about 9 hours later, as well as more than 200 aftershocks. This powerful earthquake has flattened buildings.
Turkey is in an active earthquake zone
Most of Turkey's territory lies on the Anatolian plate between two major faults, namely the North Anatolian Fault and the East Anatolia Fault. The tectonic plate that carried Arabia, including Syria, moved north and collided with the southern edge of Eurasia, pressing Turkey to the west, said David Rothery, a geoscientist at the Open University in Milton Keynes, UK.
"Turkey is moving westward at about 2 cm per year along the East Anatolian Fault. Half the length of this fault is now illuminated by earthquakes," he said as quoted by Nature, Tuesday (14/2/2023).
"People in Turkey are very aware of their vulnerability to earthquakes. This is not a surprise," said Seyhun Puskulcu, a seismologist and coordinator of the Istanbul-based Turkish Earthquake Foundation.
The main epicenter of the earthquake was 26 kilometers east of Nurdaği City in Turkey's Gaziantep Province, at a depth of 17.9 kilometers. The magnitude 7.5 event occurred about 4 kilometers southeast of Ekinözü in Kahramanmaraş Province.
War exacerbates vulnerable buildings
Deaths from earthquakes are often caused by collapsing buildings and being buried under rubble. According to the US Geology Survey (USGS), many people in Turkey affected by the earthquake live in structures that are highly likely to be damaged by the shock of boneless brick buildings and low-rise concrete frames.
In a study published last March in Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, Arzu Arslan Kelam at the Middle East Technical University, Ankara, and colleagues stated that the central city of Gaziantep would suffer moderate to severe damage from the earthquake. This is because most of the existing buildings are low-rise brick structures built very close to each other.
In 1999, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck a region 11 kilometers southeast of Izmit, Turkey, killing more than 17,000 people and leaving more than 250,000 homeless.
"After this tragedy, the Turkish government introduced new building regulations and a mandatory insurance system for earthquakes. However, many of the buildings affected by the earthquake on February 6 were built before 2000," said Mustafa Erdik, a civil engineer at Boğaziçi University, Turkey.
The situation is getting worse in Syria. More than 11 years of conflict have made it impossible to enforce building standards. An earthquake hit northwestern Syria, with buildings collapsing in Aleppo and Idlib.
"Some of the buildings damaged by the war in Syria have been rebuilt using lower quality materials or materials at hand. These buildings may collapse more easily than those built at slightly more cost. We don't know yet," Rothery said.
Researchers say people need to prepare for more aftershocks, as well as worsening weather.
"The possibility of major aftershocks causing more damage will continue for weeks and months," said Ilan Kelman, who studies disasters and health at University College London.
"The weather forecast for this area could drop below freezing. This means people trapped in the rubble, who might be able to be rescued, could freeze to death. So this danger continues," he concluded.