In less than a week, Threads already has 100 million user accounts which is equivalent to around 20% of Twitter's current users. The future of Twitter looks increasingly dark when seeing the number of users decreasing since it was taken over by Elon Musk.
There are many signs that Threads is a real competitor to Twitter due to the involvement of Mark Zuckerberg who is a veteran of the "social media wars". We laugh at Zuck because his failure in the metacity world caused billions of dollars in losses. Surely Zuck understands social media users better than Elon, so this will be the reason why I predict Threads will bury Twitter like Facebook buried MySpace in 2008.
History Will Repeat Itself
Facebook was launched in 2004 for certain college students only as a "cooler" MySpace alternative. In 2006 it opened up to all and punched a hole in MySpace like an iceberg that sank the Titanic. I liken MySpace to the Titanic because both seem unlikely to sink because they are too dominant.
We are now in 2023 and there is already a generation that has no memory of the existence of MySpace let alone Friendster because since birth they have only known Facebook as the world's largest social media platform.
If you've ever had a MySpace account congratulations you're now verified old
In the 19 years since Facebook launched, Zuck has managed to fend off the challenges of Instagram, WhatsApp, and Snapchat through acquisitions and "take inspiration" from other platforms' features such as Reels and Stories. Zuck may have failed in the metacity but he has so far not lost the social media war.
Only TikTok still has the ability to topple the Meta empire. But they are also faced with the United States government which wants to ban it because it is alleged to be in collusion with China. Usually if it is illegal in the US, it will also be banned in allied countries as can be seen happening to Huawei.
Zuck Is Not As Stupid As Elon
Elon's biggest mistake at Twitter wasn't firing thousands of employees, allowing far-right claims to be active again, giving a platform to fascists and running tons of ads. The majority of Twitter users don't care about these errors as long as the site works as it did before Elon bought it.
For me, Elon's biggest mistake was selling VERIFIED smears and selling them as Twitter Blue. A few months ago, those who did not subscribe were removed from their identity verification. In the blink of an eye official media accounts and organizations are forced to pay thousands of ringgit per month just for free features on Twitter and still free on other platforms.
The process of finding legitimate information from official accounts became difficult overnight. Elon has said the verified process before is corrupt. Even if it is true, removing it is not the smartest move. Everything Elon has done so far has been rash without thinking about the long-term effects.
Fake accounts of celebrities, politicians, media and government agencies sprouted like pimples immediately after Elon removed the legacy blue smear. Even worse, there are many cases of Twitter Blue buyers falsifying their identities to the point of losing hundreds of millions of shares in the United States due to just one hack. In Malaysia, there are those disguised as PMX also complete with Blue paint.
Astro is ahead of Elon
For Blue customers, the subscription doesn't feel worth it because they are still served ads. This makes no sense at all since Spotify Premium, Netflix, and YouTube Premium subscriptions are all ad-supported. Elon's move is similar to a paid satellite TV subscription that still displays ads to maximize profits.
Kill the Goose that Lays the Golden Egg
Zuck knows a blue smear on an account is something valuable and should not be given lightly. At Threads, Instagram account blues are automatically transferred to the same account holder for FREE. More celebrities can be seen on Threads than on Twitter now because fans know they are interacting with official accounts.
Elon's smart move for several months was used as a model for the smart Zuck as capital to attract celebrities to Threads. You may not agree but the presence of a celebrity on a platform can attract other users. Because of $8 a month, Elon will surely lose billions of dollars because the value of Twitter is now less than half of the $44 billion paid to buy it.
What I am talking about may be anecdotal data but since the launch of Threads, it can be seen that the tweets sent by the accounts of big brands are decreasing. Why waste time on a platform that asks for payment when there is a "younger" and more importantly free alternative?
Still in the Honeymoon Phase
Elon likes to shoot himself in the foot then blame others for Twitter's downfall. But he should be more humble and admit that he has no experience managing social media. Twitter is not Tesla and Space X which did not have many challengers at the beginning of the establishment. He may be knowledgeable in the world of automotive and aerospace but is a "NOOB" in social media. I have a serious blogging expertise and I have no stupid problems in the knowledge of Sufism.
It's not too late for Elon to steer the Twitter ship back in the right direction. Many moved to Threads just because of Elon. For a moment Zuck's old sins are forgiven even though he actually has a terrible record of ensuring that user data is not misused. Many people I see forget about the Cambridge Analytica scandal and the billions in fines that Facebook paid because of it.
Threads collects various personal data of the user, still cannot delete the account without deleting the Instagram account and uses an algorithmic timeline that Twitter users hate.
Zuck just had to sit still. Catit all the complaints of Threads users for several months and fix them incrementally. If you read the gossip pages, we are now "in the phase of getting to know each other's hearts, pray for the happiness of both of us". Only the petite will be seen in this phase.
What happens after the honeymoon phase is over? Zuck once turned Instagram into a VIDEOGRAM to challenge TikTok until users went on strike. Facebook, on the other hand, is filled with various fraud schemes that are not prevented until receiving a rebuke from the Ministry of Digital Communications. WhatsApp will have ads in the near future.
You're probably in love with Threads right now because it's nice to see Elon on a rampage. But the truth is that Zuck is collecting Infinity Stones for the Social Media Gautlet. When fingers are snapped and competitors are all dust, is it all worth it?